127 replies to this topic

[mitchells]

Did Dustin Johnson choke or was that 3 putt from 12 feet just a flip of the coin? 🌷😜

[Anthony Bonner]

flip of the coin.

 

Its ok - you might someday understand probabilities.

[mitchells]

Serious question: Do you think the probability of Dustin Johnson 3 putting from 12 feet increases or decreases on the 72nd hole of a major championship compared with every other 12 foot putt he has?

 

PS Wayne Gretzky who was watching with his daughter at the side of the green had a better chance to hit that putt than Johnson.

[Anthony Bonner]

Serious question. What hurt him more the three bogeys on 10,11, and 13? The double bogey on 13 on Saturday, or the three putt on 18? 

 

Was he choking when he birdied 17?

[mitchells]

Nice deflection of actually answering the question asked.

[Anthony Bonner]

No. You still don't understand why your question is silly.

[mitchells]

No. You still don't understand why your question is silly.

 

 If the probability of a 3 putt from 12 ft  for a particular golfer increases on the 72nd hold of a major championship when he has a chance to win, I would say that that player is not very good at handling pressure. So why is my question silly? Why is it that that no one thought there was a chance of Jordan Spieth 3 putting from further away yet twitter and the everyone I was texting with thought it was a distinct possibility that Johnson would 3 putt? Just a convenient narrative I know, not based on any actual history.

[Anthony Bonner]

Because people are dumb and cling to narratives their minds can understand.

[Peter Creasey]

Dustin Johnson hit the first putt equally as well as Jason Day hit virtually the same putt right beforehand.  That seems to suggest that Johnson did not choke on the first putt.

 

The second putt on those greens was the sort that was problematical the whole tournament.

[Anthony Bonner]

I just want to point out that I include myself in the subset of "dumb people" who need narratives.

[mitchells]

Did you think there was any chance Spieth would 3 putt?

[joethefoodie]

Johnson choked.

[joethefoodie]

But how he didn't hit the 2nd putt is beyond me.

[Adrian]

He could have choked, he could have panicked, he could not have choked. It's impossible to say without a brain scan, though smart money is on "coin flip".

[Adrian]

No. You still don't understand why your question is silly.

 
 If the probability of a 3 putt from 12 ft  for a particular golfer increases on the 72nd hold of a major championship when he has a chance to win, I would say that that player is not very good at handling pressure. So why is my question silly? .

This is just it. There is zero research that shows that the probability increase.