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U.S. Open Golf


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#31 Anthony Bonner

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Posted 22 June 2015 - 04:09 PM

I looked at the total number of three putts.  The math ends up being something like there is a three-put from under 15 feet in 2% of rounds on the pga tour YTD in 2015. 


"This is a battle of who blinks first, and we've cut off our eyelids"


#32 mitchells

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Posted 22 June 2015 - 04:15 PM

Isn't a more meaningful stat that the probability of  the top 126 golfers 3 putting from between 10 and 15 feet is 51/14,543 or .35%?  And the pr the top 50 guys including DJ have 0 three putts on the pga tour this year? And that includes 50 guys of the 126 who you have never even heard of.  And just randomness that DJ did that on the last hole of the US Open. 



All are lunatics, but he who can analyze his delusions is called a philosopher.
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#33 Anthony Bonner

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Posted 22 June 2015 - 05:07 PM

Yes. Just randomness.

"This is a battle of who blinks first, and we've cut off our eyelids"


#34 mitchells

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Posted 22 June 2015 - 05:11 PM

So if a golfer admits that he feels different standing over a meaningful putt like DJ had yesterday and that pressure may have an effect on his stroke they are wrong?



All are lunatics, but he who can analyze his delusions is called a philosopher.
Ambrose Bierce

#35 Anthony Bonner

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Posted 22 June 2015 - 06:11 PM

his double bogey the day before hurt his chance of winning more than the three putt did.

 

Or the South African dudes hideous first round.


"This is a battle of who blinks first, and we've cut off our eyelids"


#36 mitchells

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Posted 22 June 2015 - 06:16 PM

his double bogey the day before hurt his chance of winning more than the three putt did.

 

Or the South African dudes hideous first round.

We're not talking about which hurt is chances more. I understand that every stroke counts the same.



All are lunatics, but he who can analyze his delusions is called a philosopher.
Ambrose Bierce

#37 Wilfrid

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Posted 22 June 2015 - 06:47 PM

Like baseball games.



#38 mitchells

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Posted 23 June 2015 - 04:19 PM

No doubt that Adrian and AB will think this is all a bunch of nonsense even though it does come from the world of science: http://onpar.blogs.n...hind-the-choke/



All are lunatics, but he who can analyze his delusions is called a philosopher.
Ambrose Bierce

#39 Adrian

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Posted 23 June 2015 - 04:37 PM

Mitchells - please read what I write. Choking exists. But you can't extrapolate a discrete event and say it's a "choke". You need data. Or a brain scan. In fact, your article gives a compelling reason, which I believe I've mentioned before, why we shouldn't think this is a choke: you can train away the reflex and pga pros have trained through hundreds of high pressure shots to get where they are. To be a pro, you need to be exceptional at not choking. So, Do you have a brain scan? If not, you simply can't say.

I think you need to interpret what I'm saying in a reasonable way.


#40 Adrian

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Posted 23 June 2015 - 04:42 PM

More succinctly, the argument is not about whether choking exists but whether you can accurately identify choking.

I think you need to interpret what I'm saying in a reasonable way.


#41 Anthony Bonner

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Posted 23 June 2015 - 05:06 PM

choke or random bad luck. No one can possibly know.


"This is a battle of who blinks first, and we've cut off our eyelids"


#42 mitchells

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Posted 23 June 2015 - 05:19 PM

He could have choked, he could have panicked, he could not have choked. It's impossible to say without a brain scan, though smart money is on "coin flip".

 

Please explain why the smart money is on "coin flip"?



All are lunatics, but he who can analyze his delusions is called a philosopher.
Ambrose Bierce

#43 mitchells

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Posted 23 June 2015 - 05:30 PM

Mitchells - please read what I write. Choking exists. But you can't extrapolate a discrete event and say it's a "choke". You need data. Or a brain scan. In fact, your article gives a compelling reason, which I believe I've mentioned before, why we shouldn't think this is a choke: you can train away the reflex and pga pros have trained through hundreds of high pressure shots to get where they are. To be a pro, you need to be exceptional at not choking. So, Do you have a brain scan? If not, you simply can't say.

Just because some people can train away a choke, you have no idea whether or not Dustin Johnson can or has successfully done that. Based on the evidence in front of us, that is 51 three putts out of over 14,500 attempts (.35%) during the 2015 PGA Tour season including none by Dustin Johnson or the other top 75 PGA Golfers, to see a 3 putt on the 72nd hole of the US Open, I think it is highly unlikely that Johnson was just a victim of bad luck or randomness. He missed the hole completely on a dead straight uphill putt which is very hard to do unless you suck or you choked.



All are lunatics, but he who can analyze his delusions is called a philosopher.
Ambrose Bierce

#44 mitchells

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Posted 23 June 2015 - 05:34 PM

choke or random bad luck. No one can possibly know.

 

I bet Dustin Johnson knows. As well as his future father in law.



All are lunatics, but he who can analyze his delusions is called a philosopher.
Ambrose Bierce

#45 Adrian

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Posted 23 June 2015 - 05:42 PM

The ball also hit something! We can go zapruder on this.

The reason smart money is on bad luck, is because to even get to that point, over probably 20+ years of golf, dj has to make hundreds of high pressure shots. He has trained for pressure shots and probably works with a sports psychologist. Pro athletes are exactly the people who "train away the choke". this is all in one of the better gladwell books.

But yeah, he could have choked. That's possible. No one is denying that.

I think you need to interpret what I'm saying in a reasonable way.