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Orik

Technocrat
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Posts posted by Orik


  1. 11 hours ago, Steve R. said:

     

    Does their error affect its internal consistency as well as just being somewhat inflated?  Given that the infection count has remained pretty constant but this chart’s Transmission Rate measurement for NY has regularly climbed from the under 1.0 when I first posted it a week ago I remain concerned.  I’m guessing that watching the hospitalization rate is the best indicator but....

     

    Based on unbiased maximum likelihood estimators as I know them, over the past 24 days the positive test rate has been steady at 1.1% +/- 0.2% and no statistically significant trend. This is striking as it includes the impact of contact tracing (I assume it is super extra lousy, but still) which should increase positive tests, as well as post-protest infections making the rounds. I assume that with bad behavior on the increase and people sneaking back into town from miami beach, we'll see a rise in infections, but the average positive % for the past 7 days is 1.082% and for the 7 days before them it's 1.081%, so nothing there yet. 

    The error in their estimators is very obvious btw, but I just don't have time to spend on correcting it for them. (also obviously they'd rather be alarmist for political and media reasons)

    For the current infection levels in ny, this estimate is a bit better:

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york

     

    Finally, this is really a case that shows the weakness of Kantian ethics - you really can go dining in safety without increasing societal risk, because most people won't do so yet. If you're in an environment where most people will do so (e.g. bros and their female counterparts), then you shouldn't.


  2. 6 hours ago, Behemoth said:

    The only thing that really works in my experience is the CEO going out very visibly with a consistent message that racist/sexist/homophobic etc culture is not acceptable. 

    Absolutely. This was never an issue in the trading business as everyone there is a well behaved math / cs type, but in other businesses everyone gets the talk. 


  3. It was an extra precious moment when the photographer showed up just 15 minutes before dinner service while the architect was telling @Sivan that the mayor's special office for screwing with people wants us to rotate the toilet in avenue A because wheelchair something something. 


  4. On 7/1/2020 at 8:54 PM, Anthony Bonner said:

    Have you considered a North Central Jersey outlet?

    If there's a mall out there being given away maybe I can use it as my drying chamber.


  5. 5 minutes ago, mongo_jones said:

    not purely, no. but if you want to break these predicable structures then you have to start with moving away from predominantly rewarding members of largely white networks.

    That I agree with entirely. Also I agree that it's likely he quit for more than shouting, but nothing truthful of substance was presented by the twitter person so far.

    Regarding pay gaps, opportunity, etc. of course those also need to be dealt with but last I checked we don't make individual judgement calls based on statistical truths.  

    p.s. it's been a long while since I used to see Meehan on a daily basis but back then he mostly struck me as too stoned to do much shouting. 


  6. 2 hours ago, mongo_jones said:

    white editor in chief of a magazine trading on asian food making big bank while asian staff members are paid far less while also getting demeaned and harassed is not an unreasonable thing to object to.

    Are you saying Asian staffers were being paid less than white staffers doing the same job? That managers at a publication with such issues as "the american food issue", "the sweet spot", "before and after the apocalypse", and yes - "The Chinatown Issue" (not cherry picking, just grabbed the pile I have behind me) shouldn't be white? That senior (and / or better skilled) staff should not be paid more than junior staff?


  7. Wait, this started with tweets about a $300k salary and HR complaints at the LAT, which both turned out to be false, yes?

    Then it became about a relationship with a subordinate (which last I checked might be risky but is not illegal or harassing) and not being nice. 

    There's that ass slapping I guess, but maybe there's more coming. 


  8. On 6/27/2020 at 5:13 PM, Steve R. said:

    In my opinion, the crux of the matter.  And a bit worrisome for those of us in NY, even while we all pat ourselves on the back for "flattening the curve".

    https://rt.live

    They use the wrong kind of smoothing kernel, which biases the model to show higher Rt when infection counts are low. I'm not saying infections won't start going up at some point, but you can sort of convince yourself that they have been going down pretty steadily.

    https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-DailyTracker?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n


  9. On 6/26/2020 at 3:23 PM, Wilfrid said:

    Sounds great.  I had already planned to experiment cooking with it, probably with beans.

    Morcilla bars are the future.

    @Wilfrid - I'd avoid cooking it for too long as all that fat will run off into the dish (good) and the remainder will be fairly dry. Just a minute or two in a pan and add to the dish that you've cooked with fresh sausage and such.


  10. Note that I didn't suggest it's fine for everyone to resume their previous dining behavior, just that it's safe to dine our because not everyone will. This will be reenforced by publicity to a couple of infection clusters here and there because unlike the city's non-existent contact tracing, most reservation system vendors have added contact notification.


  11. I don't need to err on any side because I design processes that never get to that point, and I do so based on scientific guidelines and not on hamfisted blanket rules. While we were getting our HACCP plan approved I actually got the city's DOH to change their rules in a couple of places where they made no sense or went against USDA and FDA guidelines (e.g. sous vide cooking is allowed at 140 or less in many cases, but sous vide reheating was required to bring food all the way up to 160).

    Also it helps that everything we serve I'd feel comfortable eating raw (except for wild mushrooms, etc. that are toxic raw, and parasite laden fish, obvs.)


  12. I'm very good about tossing anything even slightly suspicious, but in reality you're extremely unlikely to get sick. You might eat some fly eggs if the meat was uncovered, I guess.

    It's also worth being aware of the level of nonsense in regulations and guidelines. For example, in the US you're supposed to keep food under 41F and fish under 38F, but in Japan both can be kept under 50F. In the US cooked rice left outside is going to melt you from the inside, but in Japan everyone eats that from age 3 to 18, at least. FDA says you're supposed to get cooked food from 135F to 41F in under 6 hours, but if you've made a pot of chili that is just not going to happen unless you own a blast chiller, and even then maybe not:

    https://schoolnutrition.org/uploadedFiles/5_News_and_Publications/4_The_Journal_of_Child_Nutrition_and_Management/Spring_2005/7-olds.pdf

    Anyway, toss it because eew.

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