Anthony Bonner

Wouldn't you rather an ice cold cloudy martini over a crystal clear not quite cold one?

Wait wait wait. Do like grown ups eat out if the cartons? Like even when I was single and I would order I would decant anything more involved than a sandwich onto a plate.

As a quasi insider what are your thoughts on how these season plays out if it plays out?

Oh. Well there's your problem. Cold eggs. Seriously tho. Just keep doing it and it'll come in. Usually the second omelette is better than the first even once seasoned.

Btw. Saving in March were 13% of wages. 8 in Feb. You know april is gonna be higher. Wages are like 40% of gdp. So that's a big slug of consumption coming back - and my guess is I'd you had income tabs for that the 80+ percentile is up more.

Its a very unique situation. And everyone is letting their priors dominate their thinking. You would be very hard pressed to find a recession where the capital cycle played no part what so ever. Really its a question of how permanent the consumption decline is rather than the decline the capital investment. Ordinarily that is a pretty reverting time series. If you actually look at who is losing their jobs, most of them are materially below the mean wage (that's how the BLS discloses it.). And if you look at the Personal Consumption data the bottom two deciles are a pretty small share of total PCE. And you've just skyed G as well I think a lot of restaurants are going to go bust and I think a lot of new restaurants are going to open (after a time) - but to think GDP is impaired I think means you think savings rates for the top half of the income distribution are permamently higher - which historically is a bad bet. Ultimately we really have no idea, but history doesn''t feel like a wonderful guide.

My guess is behavior is back to normal way faster than you think. Have you seen the footage from where things are reopening? I'm also skeptical on the big restaurant group thing. Maybe for the first year simply because of access to capital, but the relative scale advantage in restauranting is pretty small. It's basically outsourced labor in a room.

Cool. Too bad last I checked korin was basically sold out of grills.

How do you light the binchotan?

I dont like the integrated solution is what I was (poorly) trying to say before. Given speakers are not a rapidly changing tech it seems treating them like they are is a weaker outcome. I guess what is the piece that changes (other than software) and how do I buy that? Is it the wireless bridge? Are the DACs in a Chromecast good enough as a source into a good amplifier? I have a very long old house so I'm trying to keep wire runs to a minimum but if I need to run Cat6 I'll run Cat6

I guess I don't understand my use case for Sonos if I have a low loss stream as my source? Aren't I still going to need some amplification + dac+speaker in every room and can't I get that better and more future proofed outside of an eco system? What I don't like about Sonos is not just the sound quality ( where I'm in plattetudes camp of different horses for courses - but I have two spaces where I want good sound) but also the integration of the non-amp electronics and speaker and the walled garden nature of it. If that makes sense.

Ive had chats with a few big grocers ex-US in the last week. One of the points they've made is that they were basically forced to run a ton of behavioral experiments around consumer behavior that three months ago they would have done one at a time over a period of years, and some of them they would never have been brave enough to try. The conclusion wasnt necessarily positive - more like there were lots of things they'd been doing that probably have no value and some things they should have started doing years ago if it weren't for inertia. Pretty interesting conversation I thought. Also there are some formats like hard discount that turns out are terrible when people only want to go one place. That'll come back but when the UK grocers are doing DD comps Aldi and Lidl are comping negatively.

Ok sneak if you were trying to figure out what to do in a house what would you do. Music is the low (no?) loss tier of a streaming service. I probably need an a/v solution as well. My current setup is a pair of reasonably priced active monitors with a Chromecast audio as the source/dac. I estimate I need a three incremental rooms I'll probably put my current setup in my office.

Reminds me of one of my favorite coffee snob stories. Back when stumptown had just started roasting in NYC, the organoleptic taster and I went to check it out. I order my pourover. Asked if I want milk, no. Overly earnest barista congratulates me on my choice and says something about how they appreciate people who want to really taste the coffee. Mrs. AB orders. Milk please.

From what I can tell from the correspondence I get from them they arent laying out a time frame yet. Their donor outreach efforts are hitting a fever pitch tho. They keep asking us if we want to do virtual tours.