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Anthony Bonner

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Everything posted by Anthony Bonner

  1. Is hockey Sabbath friendly? I have an orthodox friend whose kid had to bail on club lacrosse because he was going to miss 80% of the games.
  2. weird. I don't think of Viognier as having punishing acidity, but I also don't think of chile has having underripeness issues.
  3. were there seeds on the bun?
  4. And a Cuozzo rave.
  5. Not this crowd. He needed a rack of ribs and martinis with the leftovers in a carafe.
  6. he was betting that he could replicate empellon as a "realistic price point" finance entertaining spot. Food was too weird. He forgot Mexican isn't weird to people. He should have added another 10% Houston's to the mix (the place this replaced) and it would have worked.
  7. its the smartest thing the giants have done in years. The eagles are in win now mode - it might might make sense for them. there is no way it makes sense for the Giants whose current team is at best third in the division and a marginal wild card team when they have a third place schedule.
  8. Very little difference from my pre-covid trips
  9. The midtown food courts were much more "grab and bring back to office"
  10. Urbanspace is a particular chain of food courts. Midtown mon-th is pretty normal.
  11. The midtown urbanspaces are also dying. And the issue is once the traffic starts to decline it just accelerates the process
  12. That looks excellent.
  13. Even by their low standards this screamed advertorial
  14. That reminds me I need to figure out where to eat before that ballet tonight. N.b. I just live Chatham adjacent. Those people are monsters.
  15. What do they make kosher Italian sausage out of?
  16. You obviously know why. It's still a Stulman place. Occasionally style over substance. Really what it tells you is what scenesters from 2010 are aging into. Same with Taavo Sommer having (a very nice looking!) Golf and Spa resort in the Catskills.
  17. lol. sometimes teams choke. sometimes bounces go the other teams way. That doesn't actually change if the right decisions were made...
  18. usually adjusted for road vs home. The team specific stuff doesn't actually matter much statistically (the NFL is a pretty high parity league - especially in the playoffs. Most teams that have their own tables will be making team specific adjustments - but they won't be huge) It was the fifth ranked offense against the 4th ranked defense. If you look at DVOA its basically a defense that is about 10% better than league average at getting the stop vs an offense that was about 14% better at getting a successful play than the league average. So statistically not much in it. But to the extent there was it suggests the lions were more likely to be successful Just to put that in context the best offense (which was by historic standards very good) was only about 32% better than the league average and the best defense was about 23% better than the league average). Those aren't huge numbers.
  19. The Lions covered. You would have lost. Do you think I'm sitting there calculating expected value math during a game? No I follow a Twitter bot. It's just strategy just like watching how guys make decisions on the read/option plays. Both are fascinating. Baseball and Basketball are way more infected with analytics rot. Basically taken all the strategy out of those games because everyone knows the optimal strategy. My guess is the NBA moves the three point line at some point.
  20. No because the decision to make the field goal is .75*3 whereas going for it is .59 * expected points of a first down on the 20 (or where ever the line to gain was) + the expected points from turning the ball over deep in the opponents half (in this example not worth too much but has real value inside the 5) + the value of the extra time you can runoff from the new set of downs. (More valuable later in games)
  21. I'll make another point. Assume that wideout doesn't drop the ball. Would you have said that was a bad play call? They go on to win the game? Is Campbell a bad coach?
  22. There are a bunch of decision bots out there. 4th down decision bot is the one I follow. You had a 59% chance of getting the conversion and a 75% chance of making the kick. If you get the conversion you have an 88% chance of winning. If you hit the field goal it's 84%. That basically assume you get the expected points from getting the first down at the spot on the field. It's a 2.2% improvement to your odds. Which isn't a ton but if you are playing expected value math you have to make every positive ev+ or you shouldn't play the game. (Which is a defensible position) I don't think there was any evidence in this game Campbell was just taking bad risk. He may have in other games.
  23. It's just numbers and expected value. I also think people give Campbell too little credit. Yes he reads like a meathead but his decisions were all pretty much according to the book. He even kicked at the half when that was the right call The Niners win expectation on that second play if he kicks the field goal vs not converting the 4th barely moved. His real botched call was the run on the goal line.
  24. It's a joke about an old argument we had. The tables say what the ev is of the bet. That's all it is. If the ev of going on 4th was greater than 3 points * the odds you make the field goal then you go for it. Its process not outcomes. Just because the outcome was bad doesnt make it the bad decision. That's also why he kicked the field goal at the end of the half. The ev of going on 4th is lower because you don't get the value of potentially stopping the subsequent offensive drive deep in their own territory. The ball bouncing off a guys helmet into the receivers hands and the lost fumble were way more instrumental in the loss. Or the dropped pass on the first passed over FG.
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