Peter Creasey Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 An economist's take on Fed's August 27, 2010 speech on economic conditions and monetary policy... On Friday, Fed Chairman Bernanke delivered a speech concerning our economic conditions and monetary policy. The speech was given at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole (Wyoming). I’ve taken his speech and reorganized it into the most important categories. But, here’s the bottom line…regardless of what the newspaper headlines said (many headlines focused on Bernanke’s assurances) Bernanke delivered dismal news – but you actually had to read the speech and not the spin. He admitted that the economy is weak and that the Fed didn’t expect the weakness, he told us that things will be better next year (we’re supposed to believe the Fed’s predictive powers are improving) and he discussed the tools that remain available to the Fed and made me realize that the Fed will simply be shooting blanks. This speech should scare the hell out of you. It does me. Leeds on Finance, the August 30 column 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rail Paul Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 An economist's take on Fed's August 27, 2010 speech on economic conditions and monetary policy... On Friday, Fed Chairman Bernanke delivered a speech concerning our economic conditions and monetary policy. The speech was given at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole (Wyoming). I’ve taken his speech and reorganized it into the most important categories. But, here’s the bottom line…regardless of what the newspaper headlines said (many headlines focused on Bernanke’s assurances) Bernanke delivered dismal news – but you actually had to read the speech and not the spin. He admitted that the economy is weak and that the Fed didn’t expect the weakness, he told us that things will be better next year (we’re supposed to believe the Fed’s predictive powers are improving) and he discussed the tools that remain available to the Fed and made me realize that the Fed will simply be shooting blanks. This speech should scare the hell out of you. It does me. Leeds on Finance, the August 30 column There's clearly a lot of concern that the tax laws for 2011 still aren't nailed down as a lot of employers, small business owners, etc work on budgets for 2011 and 2012. Really basic stuff like estate taxes, capital gains rates, qualified dividends, etc. Some observers figure this is going to create (another) train wreck in the stock markets as people position their portfolios, and then jump every time somebody introduces a new wrinkle. The bright side is this creates lots of work for estate and tax lawyers, brokers, insurance, etc. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Suzanne F Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 [admin] A preemptive reminder: no politics, please. Thank you. [/admin] Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ron Johnson Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 well, I can see why Professor Leeds is such an asset to the University of Texas. it takes real economic prowess to read between the lines of Bernanke's speech in order to realize that the economy is in the shitter. bravo. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Anthony Bonner Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 well, I can see why Professor Leeds is such an asset to the University of Texas. it takes real economic prowess to read between the lines of Bernanke's speech in order to realize that the economy is in the shitter. bravo. Well he's got an MBA and a CFA Quote Link to post Share on other sites
hollywood Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 the question is: will the things that can be done and actually will be done in the near term have any noticeable effect? or is any real effort to address economic issues off the table until after the elections? and then? what to do? just hunker down, i suppose. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Orik Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 don't worry, everything is going to be ok. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Anthony Bonner Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 don't worry, everything is going to be ok. sure says the guy with 50000 acres of wheat in southern Alberta to his name. As for the rest of you I suggest http://www.terravivos.com/home.htm Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ghostrider Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 The bright side is this creates lots of work for estate and tax lawyers, brokers, insurance, etc. It's funny how, whatever shape the economy is in, that seems to be the one constant. Is there a way to invest in these guys & reap a share of their profits? An ETLIT perhaps? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SLBunge Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 don't worry, everything is going to be ok. sure says the guy with 50000 acres of wheat in southern Alberta to his name. As for the rest of you I suggest http://www.terravivos.com/home.htm In order to beat the frozen ground season I will start digging this weekend. End-times shelter, wine storage, and root cellar all in one. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Creasey Posted August 31, 2010 Author Share Posted August 31, 2010 it takes real economic prowess to read between the lines of Bernanke's speech Ron, Except this doesn't explain away that the media by and large "spun" his speech into a favorable light. It is admirable that a prominent college professor cited the spin being spread and himself penned an article so reality-based. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Anthony Bonner Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 it takes real economic prowess to read between the lines of Bernanke's speech Ron, Except this doesn't explain away that the media by and large "spun" his speech into a favorable light. It is admirable that a prominent college professor cited the spin being spread and himself penned an article so reality-based. what? no one spun it like that. and this guy ain't prominent. He's a lecturer - not a prof, and he only teaches in the executive MBA program at UT-Dallas. At least find someone who's views you support with tenure for chrissakes. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Blondie Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 it takes real economic prowess to read between the lines of Bernanke's speech Ron, Except this doesn't explain away that the media by and large "spun" his speech into a favorable light. It is admirable that a prominent college professor cited the spin being spread and himself penned an article so reality-based. Is he really "prominent"? Although I don't read as much on the economy as I did when I was a trader, I've never heard of him. ETA: Cross-posted with AB. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Creasey Posted August 31, 2010 Author Share Posted August 31, 2010 I guess my point is that it would be appropriate to focus on the reality that is the message. (As Paul did!) My position really is the following. I hope that someone can take serious issue with what Professor Leeds has posted and provide some justification of why? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Suzanne F Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 Leeds's bio per UT-Austin McCombs School of Business: http://www.mccombs.utexas.edu/execed/faculty/bios/leeds.asp Other than his teaching in the Executive MBA program, his background seems rather similar to a number of members here, from what I surmise. So I might listen to him as much as I might listen to members here. My main takeaway from press coverage of Bernanke's speech was that it's up to the private sector to get cracking on job creation, that they should stop looking to the Fed to do it for them. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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