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[seems like it's time] Speaking of which, will LA get an NFL team this year? Sadly, no.

Giants sign Romo to Two-Year Contract!

Funnily enough I've spend the two years+ covering gaming for my job. I've spent hours on the trading floors of the big UK bookies talking to the oddsmakers.. And I've specifically asked them this question.

 

I'd still repeat everything I said back then.

What "question" ?

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do they think sharps exist. They generally don't, they think some people pay people off for info.

 

We were talking soccer mostly, where they basically don't think there is enough edge for a population to consistently make money betting with them. They were basically willing to take almost any action on top division games, and they only started to care on second division matches where they thought there might be the equivalent of inside info.

 

Basically they don't think underwriting skill really exists, and where they need to limit exposure is in asymmetric information..

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But they are very eager to limit exposure for less liquid events like horse racing, tennis = because they think information asymmetry is real there.

 

On soccer they'll say that they think inside info people can make a very ok ROE betting top flight games on the Asian books which go off at a 102 all around vs the 104-105 the UK books go off at where they think there is no return.

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do they think sharps exist. They generally don't, they think some people pay people off for info.

 

We were talking soccer mostly, where they basically don't think there is enough edge for a population to consistently make money betting with them. They were basically willing to take almost any action on top division games, and they only started to care on second division matches where they thought there might be the equivalent of inside info.

 

Basically they don't think underwriting skill really exists, and where they need to limit exposure is in asymmetric information..

 

Well, that is in direct conflict with this: https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/entity-betting-off-to-slow-start-with-nevada-sports-books/

 

Some excerpts:

 

 

Backers of the concept hope the launch of football season will generate interest in more entities forming, investors pooling their money with the concept and sports books deciding to take the wagers.

“I don’t think the football season will be a dynamic event for that concept,” Wallach said, speculating sports books are afraid of big action from professional sports bettors that might be involved with the groups. “If these funds have acuity for gambling and choosing the right games and they have a high success rate, it would just be intuitive that the books wouldn’t want that business. They’re not in it to be on the losing side of a wager.”

 

 

“One of the biggest challenges a sharp player has is getting enough money down to make it worth it at the number they want. If you do analytics and have a number, it’s just like a stock. You buy it at a certain point and you don’t keep buying it,” Kornegay said. “And if they were actually sharp enough to beat the book on a continuous basis, I am not sure how long the book would be willing to accept those wagers.”

 

 

While he bets with CG Technology, Connelly said it’s incorrect to say no other sports books are interested. He said he’s in discussions with one, who he declined to name, about accepting wagers. He admits, however, the sports books are “risk averse” and even has a limit imposed on him by the ones with whom he makes his personal bets.

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because they think your buddy has inside intel probably. Its not that they don't think some people win more than they should, its that they think they win more because of info asymmetry, not underwriting skill.

 

The industry has an interest in convincing people sharps exist.

 

I'll let Taion or Orik explain to you how the staking math works again so that some one with a 50% life time win rate can still get really rich as a gambler if they win enough from luck early in their career.

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because they think your buddy has inside intel probably. Its not that they don't think some people win more than they should, its that they think they win more because of info asymmetry, not underwriting skill.

 

The industry has an interest in convincing people sharps exist.

 

I'll let Taion or Orik explain to you how the staking math works again so that some one with a 50% life time win rate can still get really rich as a gambler if they win enough from luck early in their career.

You guys are way over my head on this, but I’m interested so I’ll ask. Is the definition of a “sharp” only someone who has superior underwriting skill? I would’ve assumed that being able to get intel would be as valid a part of being a “sharp”. No?

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You guys are way over my head on this, but I’m interested so I’ll ask. Is the definition of a “sharp” only someone who has superior underwriting skill? I would’ve assumed that being able to get intel would be as valid a part of being a “sharp”. No?

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because they think your buddy has inside intel probably. Its not that they don't think some people win more than they should, its that they think they win more because of info asymmetry, not underwriting skill.

 

The industry has an interest in convincing people sharps exist.

 

I'll let Taion or Orik explain to you how the staking math works again so that some one with a 50% life time win rate can still get really rich as a gambler if they win enough from luck early in their career.

You guys are way over my head on this, but I’m interested so I’ll ask. Is the definition of a “sharp” only someone who has superior underwriting skill? I would’ve assumed that being able to get intel would be as valid a part of being a “sharp”. No?

 

 

Generally correct. In my friends' situation, they get no player or team information directly but they do find out things like number of tickets sold (bets made) on teams. They also try to find out what other "sharps" are betting. AB thinks this is all fake but these guys are able to make a decent living doing nothing else but making bets and hedging whenever possible to guarantee a win.

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There used to be a bettor that hung around the race tracks in the LA area. He was called the Phantom Plunger. He'd wait until just before betting was about to close and then place some huge bet on a favorite to show. He did this quite successfully for a prolonged period. Then, one afternoon, the favorite did not finish in the top 3. O well.

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because they think your buddy has inside intel probably. Its not that they don't think some people win more than they should, its that they think they win more because of info asymmetry, not underwriting skill.

 

The industry has an interest in convincing people sharps exist.

 

I'll let Taion or Orik explain to you how the staking math works again so that some one with a 50% life time win rate can still get really rich as a gambler if they win enough from luck early in their career.

 

You guys are way over my head on this, but I’m interested so I’ll ask. Is the definition of a “sharp” only someone who has superior underwriting skill? I would’ve assumed that being able to get intel would be as valid a part of being a “sharp”. No?

Generally correct. In my friends' situation, they get no player or team information directly but they do find out things like number of tickets sold (bets made) on teams. They also try to find out what other "sharps" are betting. AB thinks this is all fake but these guys are able to make a decent living doing nothing else but making bets and hedging whenever possible to guarantee a win.

To be clear here it’s not just me who thinks that, indeed the guys I have had this conversation run materially bigger books than all of Vegas.

 

And again just because you make a living trading something doesn’t mean you have skill. Bank roll management is huge.

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