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prasantrin

Winter 2017-2018

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Rule of thumb: never travel to a state where its zip codes begin in "0" unless absolutely necessary.

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Rule of thumb: never travel to a state where its zip codes begin in "0" unless absolutely necessary.

 

Disagree. That lets out New England: Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine, places I very happily visit. (New Hampshire and Connecticut, okay, not so much.)

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Rule of thumb: never travel to a state where its zip codes begin in "0" unless absolutely necessary.

 

Disagree. That lets out New England: Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine, places I very happily visit. (New Hampshire and Connecticut, okay, not so much.)

 

 

New Jersey zip codes begin with zero, too

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Rule of thumb: never travel to a state where its zip codes begin in "0" unless absolutely necessary.

 

Disagree. That lets out New England: Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine, places I very happily visit. (New Hampshire and Connecticut, okay, not so much.)

 

 

New Jersey zip codes begin with zero, too

 

In that case, I agree. :P

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Seriously, I can't remember exactly why we've spent time in NJ but it has been substantial. I seem to remember several important antique auctions, a major antique sale in a fairgrounds someplace north, a meeting of collectors of specialty slide rules (!) and finally finding Newark an easy airport to access mid-PA.

 

And one Italian restaurant that we visited that served the most gargantuan portions we had ever seen. Side portions of pasta that would serve 2+ Pasta mains to serve 4. Huge proteins. Shortly after our visit, the WSJ wrote up this restaurant as being representative of the NJ culture of overabundance. Forgot the name of the restaurant and the town, but remember that we munched lunch off that meal's leftovers for several days proving Suzanne's premise that food safety rules protect the marginally weakest few. That joyride should have killed us.

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Hey, I grew up in NJ, and my parents and best friend are still there. Lambertville and Hunterdon County are lovely, and my part of Monmouth isn't too shabby either.

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Halloween: Having learned the song in nursery school. granddaughter wanted to go as a yellow submarine. Dad helped.

 

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When bad weather is forecast and doesn't arrive aren't you a little disappointed? I'm not talking about hurricanes. Just heavy rains. Or big snowstorms.

 

We had one of those giant coastal rainstorms headed for NYC and the northeast yesterday. 30MPH winds, gusts into the 40s. 4 inches of rain. Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together!

 

We hunkered down yesterday afternoon. There were bursts of heavy rain and wind but nothing sustained. Not to worry. The Weather Channel promised that the storm would be delayed but would hit the city heavily at around 11:00PM.

 

At 11:00PM we did get a ton of rain and wind. And then something weird happened. At around midnight I looked out my window and saw clear skies and the moon shining down. I looked at the weather app and saw that the massive storm had divided about 30 miles south of NYC and split into 2 sections. The eastern end of Long Island and Connecticut got slammed as did central New Jersey and points north. NYC was clear.

 

One of the weirdest things I've ever seen.

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We got pretty slammed in NJ. It was pretty much raining non-stop from Sunday morning through Monday morning. Although it's clear today, the winds seem actually heavier. About 200,000 people are still without electricity in Long Island, & Connecticut, & parts of NJ. There were a lot of downed power lines. We were fortunate enough not to lose power.

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My wife was born and raised in New Jersey and suffered from downed power lines once or twice a year. It was an education for me since I grew up in NYC and always had underground lines. When I saw the storm track I knew that areas that were particularly vulnerable were going to get hit. The utility companies do a terrific job in bringing power back as long as the area that gets hit isn't massive. I hope they restore power by tonight.

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NJ has a lot of wood utility poles supporting wires to thousands of homes. But the grid connects to other lines in several places. It's not unusual for a car or truck collision to take down a pole. Knocks out power to a few dozen homes for an hour or three. PSEG will deliver a spare pole from nearby, lights go back on. 10% of the right of way is supposed to be tree trimmed every year.

 

In Florida, the utility poles are concrete, steel, or a combination. Other than in the neighborhoods, poles and wires are above tree level. Designed to cat 5 storms. The downside is a car collision is usually fatal to occupants. Pole gets a paint touch up. In a storm, the pole stays up, and new wire is hung. Four or five days without power gets angry workers and peasants out into the streets.

 

(In contrast, some places support tens of thousands of homes with backbone electric on wood poles with few alternatives. And have few poles in reserve. That's just asking for trouble. You can't defer stuff like stronger backbone poles, or an inventory of spare parts, or contract emergency crews.

 

I had a look at the draft offering summary for a utility in 2015. Everything that has happened was predicted, right down to rates kept so low few people bothered to install solar. Madness!)

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Years ago, during my first few months living in Japan, the largest typhoon since WWII was going to be passing through. So like a good prairie girl, I went out and got canned food, bottled water, candles, matches. . . all those things you need in case of an emergency. I went to work and told everyone what I had done, and they ALL laughed at me because back then (this is about 1 1/2 years before the big Kobe earthquake - I was still in Japan during that one, too), NO ONE bothered preparing for disasters, at least not in Kyoto.Not only did my co-workers laugh at me, but they told their students what I had done, and they laughed, too! So I figured, well I'll show them! They'll all be hungry and in the dark, and I'll have all my emergency supplies!

 

It was all the more embarrassing when the largest typhoon since WWII barely made a dent in Kyoto (I had little understanding of Japanese geography then, and almost nothing hits Kyoto).

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Yes, "recency" or memory informed by the recent past, is a huge problem in disaster planning. If it hasn't happened in the past five years, it will probably never happen.

 

Investors have the same problem, even when stuff has happened in the memory of folks who are barely gray beards. Like 15% interest rates and 25% down payments on real estate.

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My wife was born and raised in New Jersey and suffered from downed power lines once or twice a year. It was an education for me since I grew up in NYC and always had underground lines. When I saw the storm track I knew that areas that were particularly vulnerable were going to get hit. The utility companies do a terrific job in bringing power back as long as the area that gets hit isn't massive. I hope they restore power by tonight.

 

In Flushing, we had telephone poles. You're still relatively young. ;)

 

Yes, "recency" or memory informed by the recent past, is a huge problem in disaster planning. If it hasn't happened in the past five years, it will probably never happen.

 

Investors have the same problem, even when stuff has happened in the memory of folks who are barely gray beards. Like 15% interest rates and 25% down payments on real estate.

 

Only 15%? Some our former neighbors started out at 18% (mid-1980s), and when the Citibank sweetheart deal ran out for us then, we spent a little time at 16%. And a lot of co-ops still require 25% or more.

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