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Just got word that the salon is opening up 2 weeks ahead of schedule, so I'm hoping to score a sooner appointment.  N is a little skeptical about the whole idea, and was querying me at length about their safety measures.

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In my opinion, the crux of the matter.  And a bit worrisome for those of us in NY, even while we all pat ourselves on the back for "flattening the curve".

https://rt.live

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Nevada 😡 All those damn drive over tourists from the hotspots - Utah, California and Arizona . We were doing so well before they reopened the casinos with "suggestions", rather than mandates. Which, had they had a mandate for mask wearing, likely have kept the spike up from being so steep. The infection rate is 6.2%. Up from the June 17th bottom of 5.2%. Guess we are going with reacting, rather than having been proactive. The mask mandate went into effect at 12:01 am Friday. At least reports are that the compliance rate seems to be pretty solid.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Steve R. said:

In my opinion, the crux of the matter.  And a bit worrisome for those of us in NY, even while we all pat ourselves on the back for "flattening the curve".

https://rt.live

Southern California has gotten way overconfident on this and screwed up the flattening.  And why?  For business?  To keep up with the non-maskers around the country?  It's idiotic.

Edited by hollywood
to make an addition

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Note that I didn't suggest it's fine for everyone to resume their previous dining behavior, just that it's safe to dine our because not everyone will. This will be reenforced by publicity to a couple of infection clusters here and there because unlike the city's non-existent contact tracing, most reservation system vendors have added contact notification.

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The state of Maine has had just over 3000 total cases and about 110 deaths. The governor is currently being hammered by the tourist industry for maintaining a 14 quarantine, or proof of negative test for out of state visitors. My guess is we will see a large jump in cases from just the day and weekend tourists from lower New England.

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17 hours ago, hollywood said:

Southern California has gotten way overconfident on this and screwed up the flattening.  And why?  For business?  To keep up with the non-maskers around the country?  It's idiotic.

Totally.  Why SoCal with the huge number of cases decided to open things up at a greater rate than the Bay Area, which has had far fewer cases, is a mystery to me.  N thinks it's pressure from the right-wingers in Orange and San Diego Counties.

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There is definitely pressure/desire to open from business interests.  But now they have had a partial set back.

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On 6/27/2020 at 5:13 PM, Steve R. said:

In my opinion, the crux of the matter.  And a bit worrisome for those of us in NY, even while we all pat ourselves on the back for "flattening the curve".

https://rt.live

They use the wrong kind of smoothing kernel, which biases the model to show higher Rt when infection counts are low. I'm not saying infections won't start going up at some point, but you can sort of convince yourself that they have been going down pretty steadily.

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-DailyTracker?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n

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Fish & Eddy's is open, so I can at last replace that broken saucer.

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Los Angeles restaurants are closing again for 3 weeks except for some outdoor dining.

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On 4/17/2020 at 1:38 PM, mongo_jones said:

i'd imagine the incentives would remain crazy for a while after the dealerships reopen as well. we'd actually been considering trading in our now 12 yo subaru forester for a hybrid before all this started. now seems like a good time. but yeah, no idea how we'd test-drive anything.

 

just did this today. 0% 60 month financing on a rav4 hybrid. they valued the subaru a bit higher than i was expecting, which probably means we could have got more for it selling it ourselves but who needs that hassle?

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On 6/27/2020 at 5:13 PM, Steve R. said:

In my opinion, the crux of the matter.  And a bit worrisome for those of us in NY, even while we all pat ourselves on the back for "flattening the curve".

https://rt.live

 

On 6/29/2020 at 1:29 PM, Orik said:

They use the wrong kind of smoothing kernel, which biases the model to show higher Rt when infection counts are low. I'm not saying infections won't start going up at some point, but you can sort of convince yourself that they have been going down pretty steadily.

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-DailyTracker?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n

Does their error affect its internal consistency as well as just being somewhat inflated?  Given that the infection count has remained pretty constant but this chart’s Transmission Rate measurement for NY has regularly climbed from the under 1.0 when I first posted it a week ago I remain concerned.  I’m guessing that watching the hospitalization rate is the best indicator but....

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