Corona Virus

[Sneakeater]

Thanks @Steve R.!

[Tubbs]

Half of my IG feed today is restaurants announcing they are closing. 

[Orik]

26 minutes ago, Steve R. said:

Secondly, more relevant to Orik's points -- looking at those who have tested for trending data is not "good science".  If everyone was required to test weekly, then okay, but who gets tested and when is a pretty big biasing factor.  It may be that the #s of those carrying COVID have been this high for months, but that most people didn't get tested so we never knew.  Or, it may be that the reason its high now is because those at risk have lately been required to test if they weren't vaccinated. Or... well, you get the point.  If the sample is biased, then the conclusions are suspect.

1. The total number of tests, tests by age groups, test pattern by day of week (number of tests as well as positivity rate bias during lower testing days) remained mostly stable during this period.

2. Hospitalizations. (that dip at the end is due to partial data)

 

[Steve R.]

1- yeah, I was just throwing out ideas about what could cause testing data to not be something reliable.  I have no doubt that more tests are returning as positive.  The question is who is being tested.  Every cop, etc who isn't vaccinated gets tested weekly, while those vaccinated probably don't bother with tests.   Same cohort, rising # potentially due to their continuing exposure on the job and with like minded friends/family.  Again, just possibilities.  Why draw conclusions from such data?  

2- from everything I've heard, hospitalizations are definitely way up but are mainly of those non-vaccinated/booster'ed or with concurrent major medical conditions.  I know some non-vacc'ed folk who've wound up in the hospital (& worse) but personally know of no one who was vacc'ed who has needed acute care.  Just my own single subject input but I know a lot of people including, unfortunately, some real idiots.

[Steve R.]

Just to be a little clearer on my post above.  Let's take 2 cops: John and Bob aren't vacc'ed and both test negative week #1.  John goes and gets vaccinated, bowing to pressure & insight; Bob remains unvaccinated, as does his family.  John doesn't go back for another test now that he's vacc'ed, while Bob continues to get mandatory testing.  By the 4th week, Bob tests positive.  Data says first week has 0% positivity, 4th week 100%, not 50%, but only because John had no need (or desire) to keep testing.  

And, as for the 2nd point, even if John would've tested positive post vaccination, it seems Bob has a much higher chance of winding up in a hospital bed.

 

[Anthony Bonner]

they actually give that data as well but its on a lag. 

[Orik]

2. The point here isn't who is getting hospitalized, but that hospitalizations are following exactly the same path (delayed by a week or so of course) as does the number of positive tests, and therefore they serve as strong validation that the data is not biased. 

1. There are just too many tests being performed daily now, and the tested population is too stable in terms of timing, age, zip code, etc. for me to believe any of those are real issues.

[Orik]

Just walked past the extremely long, block wrapping line for COVID testing and Bob wasn't there.

[hollywood]

I've been vaxxed and boosted and masked, but contrary to Mr. Paige's advice I keep looking over my shoulder.

[Steve R.]

2 hours ago, Orik said:

Just walked past the extremely long, block wrapping line for COVID testing and Bob wasn't there.

Bob tested positive and is now either quarantined or in the hospital.  Did you look for John?  I'd like to know his results.  If negative, he brings down the data point (in a very small way) &, if positive, I'm happy he isn't symptomatic enough to be in the hospital.  Seriously, I get your point(s).  I guess we're gonna see what happens to our fully vaccinated & boostered selves.  Happy Holidays!

[Wilfrid]

On 12/15/2021 at 5:44 PM, Orik said:

We should be looking at the product of the number of cases and the seriousness of an individual case (which itself is a product of the seriousness of current variants, vax/infection recency, and the efficacy of antiviral treatments). 

Product means multiplication, right? 🤓

[Steve R.]

39 minutes ago, hollywood said:

I've been vaxxed and boosted and masked, but contrary to Mr. Paige's advice I keep looking over my shoulder.

Watch where you're walking.  The cars in your town are just as dangerous.

[Wilfrid]

18 hours ago, AaronS said:

overheard a parent telling their kid that they had to fire the nanny because she lied about something covid related and now grandpa was in the hospital and the father (in a crowd of several hundred people) had to quarantine. 

hope your daughter recovers quickly wilf.

Thanks for the good wishes; fully vaccinated she is fine.

[Wilfrid]

2 hours ago, Orik said:

Just walked past the extremely long, block wrapping line for COVID testing and Bob wasn't there.

Was seeing amazing testing lines on New York 1. I have some home testing kits thanks to requirements for an event I didn’t go to in the end.

[Orik]

1 hour ago, Wilfrid said:

Product means multiplication, right? 🤓

I am a product of my upbringing!

Of course.