Restaurants in a post-coronavirus world

[cinghiale]

I generally tend to pessimism. The landscape will certainly look much different everywhere. I for one will be hesitant to enter a close-quarters environment for some time. Chang is definitely worried (per the NYT piece that I can't seem to link to). Landlords are currently unwilling to come down from rent demands. I can't see how places will be able to relaunch. The costs in what is certain to be a tight credit market are likely insurmountable (at least under the"old" model). Am I being Cassandra-ish?

[Behemoth]

Wasn’t Cassandra always right?

[Sneakeater]

So there'll be different players.  But there'll always be a scene.  A clean-out might be a good thing.

[Adrian]

I would think that it will accelerate current trends - in particular, it will bias large well funded groups.

[Sneakeater]

OK a clean-out might not be a good thing.

[AaronS]

chang’s emails asking for money turned my stomach. he can ask stephen ross to divert some of the money he spends in unmentionable ways.

[Sneakeater]

Very strongly agree.

[Rich]

Why would anyone assume there will be restaurants in a post-Corona world? We may get so used to not having them, that we may realize we don't need them.

[Steve R.]

Yeah, like me & Ginny eating at home is a sustainable model.

[joethefoodie]

Why would anyone assume there will be restaurants in a post-Corona world? We may get so used to not having them, that we may realize we don't need them.

Need and want are two different things.

[Orik]

Restaurateurs make a lot of noise, but once they've laid off nearly all staff, the remaining expenses have them burning through about 2 months of profit for every month of plague, and the coming loans will reduce that further to just over one month per month. It's really no big deal for them. 

[Rich]

Missing the whole point of my comment. It's not about money or wanting.

 

How long will it take a 4-top to feel comfortable sitting next to another 4-top, sitting next to another 4-top?  

 

How long will it take people to feel comfortable to go to those very, very close theater seats. 

 

How long will it take people to fly in close quarters?

 

How long will it take people to sit in a closed arena to watch a sporting event?

 

How long will it take people to visit a friend's home for a dinner party of six or eight?

 

Could go on and on, but remember, the foodie population here is a lot more forgiving than the general public. While we may not have a problem with one or any of these, the general population will. Understand society, this is shaken us/them to the core.

 

We, in all our high mindedness, don't have the ability to save the restaurant industry as we knew it. Take-out and delivery is the restaurant model of the post-Corona era - IMO of course.

[Daniel]

i think its a prime opportunity for Uber Eats and the like to accelerate their take over of the restaurant industry.  I think delivery services are going to come out even stronger while the public is now conditioned to order in even more then they were prior.   Lots of good leases available for their ghost kitchens too.    We started doing a delivery service and it's been really popular.  I am going to be sad once we are not longer allowed to sell bottles of liquor or wine but, can't wait to have a bar again. 

[Anthony Bonner]

Restaurateurs make a lot of noise, but once they've laid off nearly all staff, the remaining expenses have them burning through about 2 months of profit for every month of plague, and the coming loans will reduce that further to just over one month per month. It's really no big deal for them. 

yeah,

 

I'm a little biased because my professional life is nearly all ex-US - but you guys are completely missing the huge wall of money + the political and emotional pressure on the banks to let them completely play ball.  Businesses that were going to fall down in 18 months are gonna fall down in 6, but if your business was fundamentally ok going into this you should be fine so long as you are diligent about pursuing the programs available to you.  

 

(the group that might really be screwed - and weep not for them - are the CRE landlords whose mortgages are wrapped up in various structures - like CLO documents never saw a situation in which it might be in the ultimate economic interests of the noteholder to allow forebearance so the servicers evidently can't make it happen)

 

The idea that people won't literally burst out into the streets when this is over seems weird to me.  Like when people said no one would fly again after 9/11. That said be prepared to get your temp taken a lot and probably wear masks in public places.

[StephanieL]

An Eater article estimated that 30% of the restaurants in SF could go out of business.

 

To answer Rich's questions, how long did it take the public in 1918 to start going back out again and being in close quarters with people, especially if they were better off and not living cheek by jowl in tenements?  Granted, there were no remote options like the one we have, but to do any travel they generally had to be in contact with others for a lot longer (trains and ships vs. planes).