Supper

[Mitchell101]

Was on Arthur Ave Saturday for the first time since beginning of the pandemic. Decided to pick up stuff for football Sunday dinner. First stop, a beautiful veal rib chop at Biancardi's, mozzarella from Casa de Mozzarella, tomoatoes from Teitel Bros, broccoli rabe from the produce stand in the market and bread from Addeo's. Did the veal chop parm ala Carbone and all came out great.  Pounded the chop, then breaded then fried and finished under the broiler with mozzarella and sauce. Topped with chopped basil leaves.  Felt like throwing it up when Dan Campbell forgot FG's count for 3 points. 

 

ETA: Very good dinner at Roberto's Saturday eve. I had the rabbit and it was excellent. Well cooked in a excellent wine sauce. 

Edited January 29, 2024 by Mitchell101

[MitchW]

What Setaro Pasta calls "maccheroncini." So...

Maccheroncini alla marinara with feta and Parmiggiano.

 

Two pizzas.  Top one, baked in a cast iron frying pan, topped with Bianca crushed tomatoes, mozzarella, parm, salt, olive oil.  Bottom one stretched thinner, baked on a sheet pan, lightly topped with those same tomatoes, oregano, salt, parm, olive oil. Dough balls actually purchased frozen from Party Bus Bakery; they each weigh about 250 grams and cost $3. Put into separate bowls, lightly coated with olive oil, and kept at room temp until almost doubled in size. Best frozen dough I've come across.

[Wilfrid]

1 hour ago, Mitchell101 said:

Was on Arthur Ave Saturday for the first time since beginning of the pandemic. Decided to pick up stuff for football Sunday dinner. First stop, a beautiful veal rib chop at Biancardi's, mozzarella from Casa de Mozzarella, tomoatoes from Teitel Bros, broccoli rabe from the produce stand in the market and bread from Addeo's. Did the veal chop parm ala Carbone and all came out great.  Pounded the chop, then breaded then fried and finished under the broiler with mozzarella and sauce. Topped with chopped basil leaves.  Felt like throwing it up when Dan Campbell forgot FG's count for 3 points. 

 

ETA: Very good dinner at Roberto's Saturday eve. I had the rabbit and it was excellent. Well cooked in a excellent wine sauce. 

I did get to Arthur Avenue before the holidays, but it's probably 20 years since I went to Roberto's.

[small h]

1 hour ago, MitchW said:

Best frozen dough I've come across.

That does look impressive!

[Evelyn]

4 hours ago, Mitchell101 said:

Felt like throwing it up when Dan Campbell forgot FG's count for 3 points. 

 

And then he doubles down and says he didn't regret those 4th down calls. Other than fans who didn't want Detroit to win, he's likely the only one who didn't regret them. SMH.

[StephanieL]

Though it's not chili weather here right now, N decided we need something big for the week so she made a turkey chili (ground turkey and the meat from a smoked turkey leg) with RG Mayacobas, tomatillos, fresh Anaheim chiles, and a small can of Hatch chiles. Cornbread (not sweet, with corn kernels) on the side.

[MitchW]

2 hours ago, Evelyn said:

And then he doubles down and says he didn't regret those 4th down calls. Other than fans who didn't want Detroit to win, he's likely the only one who didn't regret them. SMH.

I guess it was his kneecaps that got bitten.

[MitchW]

4 hours ago, small h said:

That does look impressive!

Thanks - until quite recently, I'd not done the pan pizza thing. While it's certainly a different style, it is much easier to do and get quality results, at least to this here cook.

[Anthony Bonner]

4 hours ago, Evelyn said:

And then he doubles down and says he didn't regret those 4th down calls. Other than fans who didn't want Detroit to win, he's likely the only one who didn't regret them. SMH.

It's an expected value bet. Just because it didn't work doesn't mean it was the wrong decision.

Or put another way if you believe sharps exist in Vegas  you can't think Campbell made a bad decision. Lol...

[Mitchell101]

He definitely made a poor choice by any metric. Going up 3 scores with 22 minutes left in the game was where the value was. 

Not sure what this has to do with sharps in Las Vegas. 

[Anthony Bonner]

It's a joke about an old argument we had.

The tables say what the ev is of the bet. That's all it is. If the ev of going on 4th was greater than 3 points * the odds you make the field goal then you go for it. Its process not outcomes. Just because the outcome was bad doesnt make it the bad decision. That's also why he kicked the field goal at the end of the half. The ev of going on 4th is lower because you don't get the value of potentially stopping the subsequent offensive drive deep in their own territory.

The ball bouncing off a guys helmet into the receivers hands and the lost fumble were way more instrumental in the loss. Or the dropped pass on the first passed over FG.

[Mitchell101]

I respectfully disagree.  With 22 minutes left the value of getting 3 points and making it a 3 score game is worth more than going for it and potentially getting a TD which would have still been a 3 score game. If the field goal would have maintained it as as a 2 score game and a TD potentially 3 scores then I may agree with you. Also, getting 3 there forces the 49ers to change strategy on offense. They would have had 22 minutes to score 3 times and hold the Lions to no more than 3. Makes no sense. 

And on the 2nd 4th down play it would make sense to go for it if he could have won the game with a TD but there still would have been plenty of time for the 49ers to score a TD and win. He couldn't end it. But with a FG he could have guaranteed his team the chance of a game tying TD in the final minutes.  But of course they were then down 10 which made the task virtually impossible. 

Campbell isn't using analytics, he's going for it because he wants to be aggressive and his aggressiveness during the season paid off but his aggressiveness yesterday was reckless.  Just because you guess the coinflip correctly 80% of the time during the season doesn't mean you forget what the true EV of a coinflip is in the championship game. 

[Anthony Bonner]

It's just numbers and expected value. I also think people give Campbell too little credit. Yes he reads like a meathead but his decisions were all pretty much according to the book. He even kicked at the half when that was the right call 

The Niners win expectation on that second play if he kicks the field goal vs not converting the 4th barely moved.

His real botched call was the run on the goal line.

[Mitchell101]

Please show me the “analytics” how the first 4th down play was justified? 
 

I keep hearing about analytics but have yet to see the algorithm 

Edited January 30, 2024 by Mitchell101

[Anthony Bonner]

There are a bunch of decision bots out there. 4th down decision bot is the one I follow. You had a 59% chance of getting the conversion and a 75% chance of making the kick. If you get the conversion you have an 88% chance of winning. If you hit the field goal it's 84%.  That basically assume you get the expected points from getting the first down at the spot on the field. It's a 2.2% improvement to your odds. Which isn't a ton but if you are playing expected value math you have to make every positive ev+ or you shouldn't play the game. (Which is a defensible position)

I don't think there was any evidence in this game Campbell was just taking bad risk. He may have in other games. 

[Anthony Bonner]

I'll make another point. Assume that wideout doesn't drop the ball. Would you have said that was a bad play call?  They go on to win the game? Is Campbell a bad coach? 

[Mitchell101]

Maybe I am missing something with your math. I get the probability of winning is greater if they make the 1st down vs kicking the FG but if the probability of making the 1st down is 59% vs 75% of making the FG aren’t they better off kicking the FG? 

[MitchW]

Detroit might have won had their defense been able to stop the 49ers from scoring 27 points in the 2nd half. Thats the way the football bounces, however.

[hollywood]

Meanwhile, Schrager says Chiefs win.  https://sports.yahoo.com/peter-schragers-incredible-super-bowl-143029623.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Hey, he's got a 50-50 chance.

[Anthony Bonner]

7 hours ago, Mitchell101 said:

Maybe I am missing something with your math. I get the probability of winning is greater if they make the 1st down vs kicking the FG but if the probability of making the 1st down is 59% vs 75% of making the FG aren’t they better off kicking the FG? 

No because the decision to make the field goal is .75*3 whereas going for it is .59 * expected points of a first down on the 20 (or where ever the line to gain was) + the expected points from turning the ball over deep in the opponents half (in this example not worth too much but has real value inside the 5) + the value of the extra time you can runoff from the new set of downs. (More valuable later in games)

[MitchW]

Man, I can't imagine how much fun it must be to watch sports with these issues on one's mind. 

In any event, there was a high probability that I was cooking dinner at home last night.

I should've bet.  Polenta with sausage and gravy.  Endive salad with a bunch of anchovies.

[Anthony Bonner]

The Lions covered. You would have lost.

Do you think I'm sitting there calculating expected value math during a game? No I follow a Twitter bot. It's just strategy just like watching how guys make decisions on the read/option plays. Both are fascinating.

Baseball and Basketball are way more infected with analytics rot. Basically taken all the strategy out of those games because everyone knows the optimal strategy. My guess is the NBA moves the three point line at some point.

[MitchW]

48 minutes ago, Anthony Bonner said:

The Lions covered. You would have lost.

Had I bet the over?  I know the Lions covered - that's why the ref didn't throw a flag on the obvious late hit on Brock, forcing the 49ers to kick a field goal rather than getting the first down and scoring 7.

[Mitchell101]

2 hours ago, Anthony Bonner said:

No because the decision to make the field goal is .75*3 whereas going for it is .59 * expected points of a first down on the 20 (or where ever the line to gain was) + the expected points from turning the ball over deep in the opponents half (in this example not worth too much but has real value inside the 5) + the value of the extra time you can runoff from the new set of downs. (More valuable later in games)

Are the probabilities you have quoted based on overall NFL? The Lions? All competition? Vs Niners? Road or home? 

[Anthony Bonner]

usually adjusted for road vs home. The team specific stuff doesn't actually matter much statistically (the NFL is a pretty high parity league - especially in the playoffs. Most teams that have their own tables will be making team specific adjustments - but they won't be huge) It was the fifth ranked offense against the 4th ranked defense. If you look at DVOA its basically a defense that is about 10% better than league average at getting the stop vs an offense that was about 14% better at getting a successful play than the league average. So statistically not much in it. But to the extent there was it suggests the lions were more likely to be successful 

Just to put that in context the best offense (which was by historic standards very good) was only about 32% better than the league average and the best defense was about 23% better than the league average). Those aren't huge numbers.